2010 Saltwater Forecast

Anglers should have concerns for many popular saltwater species in North Carolina waters.

Although fisheries biologists reported that four saltwater fisheries improved their status in 2009, the overview for 2010 — particularly for popular species that anglers pursue — isn’t that bright.The N.C. Division of Marine Fisheries said stocks of summer flounder, monkfish, bay scallop and scup showed improvements last year. But summer flounder and monkfish only advanced from “concern” to “recovering” and bay scallops went from “depleted” to “recovering.” Scup went from “concern” to “viable,” the NCDMF’s highest rating, but the advance occurred in a troubling manner — biologists used a different statistical model to measure their numbers.

Some species — inshore and ocean stripers, bluefish, dolphin, Spanish mackerel, menhaden and striped mullet — held their own in the viable category, but many popular fisheries declined or saw no dramatic improvements last year.

To take a word from the NCDMF’s lexicon, anglers should have “concern” about saltwater fisheries this year.

Here’s our annual look at North Carolina’s coastal finfish and what some of the state’s marine biologists said about them.

Striped bass

Stripers, aka rockfish, fall into two major groups — ocean and inland-waters fish — although some intermingling of the stocks occurs.

The good news is NCDMF classified ocean stripers as “viable” in 2009. Outer Banks surf and boat fishermen mostly interact with these fish during cold months — they originate mainly from the Chesapeake Bay, although a few Hudson Bay- and Delaware Bay-tagged fish make their way south each year.

“This stock is listed as viable because results from the Atlantic Striped Bass stock assessment update indicate the number of females in the spawning stock is above target, and fishing mortality rates are below target,” said Charlton Godwin, an NCDMF biologist. “There was a slight decline in overall stock abundance from 2004 to 2007, with a small increase in 2008. Overall, the stock is healthy and recruitment is stable.”

Plenty of inland stripers also swim in Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds, with the most-famous population in the Roanoke River. The Roanoke’s migratory rockfish run, which provides a fabulous spring fishery, is a major reason biologists classify the Albemarle/Pamlico stock as “viable.” Some Roanoke River stripers migrate to and from the ocean, but many spend their lives in coastal rivers and sounds.

The Neuse, Pamlico, Trent and Tar rivers also contain inland stripers, and anglers catch plenty of them, particularly during the winter. Spring spawning runs are decent but don’t match the Roanoke. However, inland stripers along North Carolina’s southeastern are classified as “depleted” because of low numbers in the Cape Fear River. The N.C. Wildlife Resources Commission and NCDMF halted harvest of Cape Fear stripers two years ago, and biologists don’t foresee a lifting of the ban anytime soon. Catch-and-release is allowed.

“Locks and dams are part of the (reason for the) decline in Cape Fear River stripers,” said Rich Carpenter, a Commission biologist. “But also, hybrids that came from upstream lakes were outcompeting Cape Fear stripers. When (we) ended stocking of hybrids, we started to see a decline in hybrids and some natural reproduction of stripers.”

With observed striper spawning, the Commission closed the Cape Fear to striper harvests and stocked fingerlings, hoping one day rockfish will repopulate the river system.

“We stocked 110,000 Phase II stripers in the Cape Fear from Castle Hayne to Wilmington during December 2009,” Carpenter said. “We’ve been stocking stripers in the Cape Fear for years.”

Although a plan to create fish by-passes at the river’s inland locks and dams hasn’t gained a foothold, Carpenter said plans exist to create rock ramps — if funding can be obtained. These ramps would allow stripers and other migratory fish to swim around the locks and dams and spawn upstream.

(Rock ramps) are kind of like fish ladders, with rocks and pools where fish can rest before heading upstream,” he said. “We just need the money to do it.”

Southern flounder

No saltwater fish is more sought-after by commercial and recreational anglers than southern flounder, and none have been hit harder by overharvests.

For years, NCDMF biologists warned that southern flounder were overfished. Unfortunately, overfishing was allowed by official sanction. Even though southern flounder are “depleted,” the N.C. Marine Fisheries Commission allow harvests almost year-round, even violating its own stock-rebuilding plan. When the NCMFC allowed a 2-week December 2009 extension of the pound-net season, three members of the Southern Flounder Advisory Committee resigned.

How did southern flounder get in such poor shape?

“Increased landings in the late 1980s and 1990s were beyond what the population could sustain,” said Chris Batsavage, NCDMF’s flounder specialist. “In addition, most of the landings (commercial and recreational) consist of ages 1 and 2 fish — the age when southern flounder reach sexual maturity. This means a portion of the catch consists of fish that have not yet spawned.”

Batsavage also said that commercial-fishing efforts increased in the late 1980s and 1990s, just as southern flounder numbers were dropping, adding to the problem. Recreational efforts also increased, as more small boaters fished for flounder, red drum and speckled trout. Gigging by commercial and recreational anglers also hurt inshore flatfish.

Batsavage said a 20.5-percent decrease in overall landings is needed to start southern flounder on the road to recovery.

“This could be done by a combination of size-limit increases, season closures or creel-limit decreases,” he said.

Batsavage also agreed that “from a biological standpoint for a species that is overfished and/or overfishing is occurring” any regulation that allows additional harvest, no matter the reason, would not be in the best interest of that or any other fishery in a similar situation.

Summer flounder

These flatfish, classified as “recovering,” usually are found in the ocean, preferring saltier water than their inshore cousins.

Batsavage said summer flounder are in decent shape, even though targeted by deep-water commercial trawlers. Earlier management steps that took pressure off summer flounder helped end overfishing before the stock fell precipitously, he said.

“Summer flounder are in better shape because management measures to rebuild the stock have been in place since the early 1990s,” Batsavage said “Significant reductions in harvest (commercial and recreational) in recent years to end overfishing and meet the rebuilding target have definitely helped.”

Spotted sea trout

Speckled trout fishing has been good for several years, but biologists have seen few older-age fish, which led to the “concern” rating in 2009.

“(Specks are) still overfished, and overfishing is occurring,” said Beth Burns, the NCDMF biologist who oversees the trout fishery.

She noted that data from 2006 through 2008 showed increased landings by commercial and recreational fishermen, and less-than-desired numbers of older fish. Yet overall numbers of specks are high.

“Yes, there are plenty of specks everywhere, but unfortunately, the age composition is primarily 0- to 3-year-olds,” Burns said. “We have aged older fish, but the relative abundance of fish age 3 and older is limited and needs to be expanded. Also, in recent years, the fishing mortality associated with the recreational fishery is high in comparison to the commercial fishery.”

The NCDMF increased the recreational minimum-size limit to 14 inches on Dec. 14, 2009.

The major problem for North Carolina speckled trout is “cold shock” caused by severe prolonged wintry weather and low water temperatures.

An extended freeze from late December through early January created worries. Burns said that approximately 4,000 cold-stunned specks were observed in the North River and Core Creek near Beaufort. Less-extensive kills were reported in other areas.

Commercial anglers also must abide by the 14-inch size limit for speckled trout but have no daily creel limit. Recreational anglers may only keep 10 specks per day.

Black sea bass

Black sea bass also are divided into two groups, fish north of Cape Hatteras (“concern”) and fish south of the cape (“depleted”).

Burns said federal fisheries biologists have taken a cautious approach in managing north-of-Hatteras sea bass. That resulted in unpopular rulings, such as a recreational season closure north of Hatteras from Oct. 5, 2009 to April 1, 2010 — even though an independent body of federal and university scientists said stocks had been rebuilt.

“The data is so limited for the surveys that many (people) questioned basing so much of the assessment on these simple surveys,” Burns said. “Many (scientists) would like to see more data be available to be utilized in assessing the stock.”

However, the recreational season remained open south of Hatteras.

Chip Collier, an NCDMF biologist, said studies have shown black sea bass north and south of Hatteras are genetically different, so they’re managed differently. He also said many factors affect sea bass that federal harvest rules North Carolina fishermen must follow tend to be conservative.

“For this aggregate (bottomfish) complex, we know very little about recruitment dynamics,” Collier said. “Changes in reproductive patterns, water currents shifting and decrease in habitat availability could all cause a decrease in numbers of bottomfish recruiting to reefs off North Carolina.

“A new predator, lionfish, has been introduced into the system. Water quality in the estuary could also influence the survivorship of juvenile black sea bass. Finally, commercial and recreational fishing off the coast, as well as along the U.S. South Atlantic coast have caused a decrease in numbers of bottomfish in North Carolina waters.”

Yet Collier said he could accept that anglers still catch sea bass,

“Fishermen are to be believed that there are pockets of black sea bass out there,” he said. “I would be very concerned if they were not catching black sea bass. (But) the indication from stock assessments is that the total number of black sea bass in the South Atlantic has decreased.”

Reef fishes

With coastal economies and sportfishing businesses hit hard by the recession, federal closures of many reef fish have further upset recreational and commercial anglers.

Recreational anglers claim there’s no shortage of red snapper, in particular, and note the closures were based on inaccurate data, particularly Marine Recreational Fishing Statistical Surveys.

“The closures are not due to a lack of abundance during certain times of the year but are to maintain a sustainable population size or keep harvest below quotas,” said biologist Chip Collier of the NCDMF. “Gag and other shallow-water grouper species are currently closed from January through April during their spawning season. This achieves two goals at once — most importantly, it protects spawning, aggregated fish from being targeted. It also reduces the harvest by decreasing the number of days which fishermen can target grouper.”

Federal fisheries managers closed red snapper fishing from Jan. 1, 2010, to April 30 (and possibly longer) from North Carolina to Florida.

“Shallow-water grouper (gag, black, red, scamp, rock hind, red hind, coney, grasby, yellowfin, yellowmouth and tiger grouper) harvest was prohibited Jan. 1-April 30, and vermilion snapper can’t be kept until April 1,” Collier said.

When the season re-opens, recreational anglers may catch a daily aggregate of three grouper — only one may be a gag or black grouper — which is a reduction from the previous 5-fish aggregate. Only one snowy grouper and one golden tilefish may be in that 3-fish total.

Charter boat captains and crew will be excluded from possessing grouper and vermilion snapper. When it becomes legal to keep vermilion snapper (pink snapper), they daily bag limit will be five fish instead of 10.

Red drum

Because overfishing ended in the late 1990s, red drum may be the healthiest fish species in North Carolina, even though NCDMF still classifies them as “recovering.”

Found mostly in inshore waters from the north-central coast to the South Carolina border, recreational anglers catch them year-round. Although older drum leave North Carolina’s sounds and move to the ocean during the winter, many slot and under-slot reds remain inshore. During the winter, huge schools of reds also swim just behind the surf lines at beaches from Cape Lookout to South Carolina.

“Current regulations have been effective at preventing overfishing of juvenile fish since 1999,” biologist Lee Paramore said. “The most recent (stock) assessment indicates that measures taken have been effective at increasing the survival of red drum.”

He cited the state’s Red Drum Fisheries Management Plan of 2001 as the catalyst that kick-started the redfish recovery. It lowered the commercial trip limit to seven reds, while the 1-fish daily creel limit for recreational anglers, established in 1999, remained in place along with an 18- to 27-inch slot limit set in 1992.

“Based on assessment results, current regulations have achieved their intended effect,” Paramore said. “The adult spawning stock continues to be protected by prohibiting the harvest of red drum greater than 27 inches in total length, and current fishing-mortality rates of sub-adult fish are low enough to provide adequate escapement to the adult stock in order to sustain the fishery.”

Weakfish

Gray trout are in trouble in North Carolina waters, and the usual suspect — fishing pressure — isn’t a reason.

“Weakfish along the Atlantic coast are currently considered to be depleted,” Paramore said. “There’s little evidence to suggest the current decline in weakfish abundance can be attributed to fishing mortality alone. In fact, fishing mortality levels in recent years are quite low, and overfishing isn’t considered to be occurring.

“Natural mortality of weakfish appears to be on the rise since the mid-1990s. The exact cause in this increase is not fully understood. Factors such as predation, competition and/or decreased prey availability may be having a stronger influence on population dynamics than the current level of fishing mortality.”

Paramore said the ASMFC’s Weakfish Management Board recently took steps to reduce harvest of gray trout that may help recovery. They include a 1-fish recreational bag limit, a 100-pound commercial trip limit and a 100-pound commercial by-catch limit during closed seasons with unchanged size limits. These actions are estimated to reduce landings by approximately 60 percent and are intended to discourage directed fishing, limit by-catch mortality and allow for continued monitoring and data collection by state agencies.

“On a positive note, despite low adult biomass in the population, recruitment of young-of-year weakfish remains relatively strong,” he said. “When conditions for survival improve for age 1-and-older fish, weakfish will begin a recovery.”

King mackerel

The most-popular tournament sportfish in the Atlantic Ocean is probably king mackerel. Coastal towns hold dozens of king mackerel tournaments each year, and kings are a “fun-fishing” target for weekend anglers.

However, even though kings have been a healthy species for a long time, the 2009 stock status report dropped these sporty gamefish two categories from “viable” to “concern.”

The reason may be because even though commercial landings maintained a 10-year average in 2008, recreational landings dipped by almost 400,000 pounds.

It’s likely the depressed economy meant fewer trips by fewer anglers for king mackerel. Whatever the cause, biologist Randy Gregory of NCDMF said the drop wasn’t a cause for alarm.

“Based on the 2008 stock assessment, the South Atlantic king mackerel stock isn’t overfished,” he said. “It’s uncertain whether overfishing is occurring. However, if it is, it’s at a low level.”

Spanish mackerel

These fish have saved many summer and early fall fishing trips when other species were difficult to find. All it takes is a few Clark spoons and a boat that can troll inshore waters, particularly near inlets.

Spanish remain in the “viable” category based on 2009’s stock assessment, yet it could drop next year and follow the model of king mackerel.

“Spanish mackerel in the South Atlantic is not undergoing overfishing,” Gregory said. “However, the stock assessment model and underlying data are insufficient to make a determination on whether or not the stock is overfished.”

Menhaden

Anglers use menhaden to catch king mackerel, flounder, red drum, specks and other many other gamefish species.

The NCDMF lists them as “viable” in North Carolina primarily because a menhaden “reduction” (factory boats) presence no longer exists in the state. Moreover, the nearest menhaden processing factory, Omega Protein of Reedville, Va., has been discouraged by the NCDMF from sending its boats into North Carolina waters.

“The (menhaden) stock isn’t overfished, and overfishing isn’t occurring,” biologist Trish Murphy noted in her NCDMF 2009 stock-status report. “Commercial landings have decreased because there’s no longer a reduction fishery in North Carolina.”

The 10-year average menhaden catch in North Carolina waters was almost 34 million pounds, but it dropped to 650,000 pounds in 2008.