2014 Saltwater Outlook

Status of most species change very little, but questions remain

The prospects for saltwater fish species changed negligibly last year, according to stock-status reports from the N.C. Division of Marine Fisheries.

Oddly enough, the anecdotal experiences of coastal residents, guides, captains and visitors often don’t match the information in the 2012 reports, the latest at the Division’s web site.

Although some species are listed as “viable” — the healthiest classification — they’ve been tough to catch. Others are listed as “concern, depleted” or “recovering,” yet anglers last summer and fall reported plenty of fish. For example, sampling by the National Marine Fisheries Service was so off base the feds reopened the recreational season on black sea bass.

For the record, North Carolina’s latest stock-status report showed 10 viable species, three recovering, 12 of concern, six depleted and seven unknowns. However, this preview will aim primarily at understanding the 2014 prospects for the most-pursued saltwater species.

Striped bass — Status: viable/concern

The Albemarle Sound and Roanoke River Management area striped bass stocks apparently are healthy and plentiful, even though the Juvenile Abundance Index was lower (3.0) than the 10-year average. (8.1)

Charlton Godwin, the Division biologist who studies these two striper stocks, said the number of spawning adults is above the minimum needed to have good spawning success, but that doesn’t guarantee good reproduction. Dams, pesticides and nutrients in rivers cause problems for striper eggs, not to mention floods.

“Actually for most animals, terrestrial or aquatic, other factors usually are more important in annual spawning success than just the abundance of the spawning adults in the population,” he said, “whether it’s food availability, predator/prey interactions, environmental conditions, or combinations of many variables.”

Not so happily, the numbers of adult, female stripers seem to be dropping. However, Godwin said that’s still not a cause for alarm.

“Long-term … total abundance … will always go up and down,” he said. “This is a natural cycle. We are currently in a period of declining abundance for the A/R striped bass stock. Levels of abundance, especially female spawning adults, are still high enough, however, that the stock can produce a sustainable yield and strong year-classes, thus the ‘viable’ category classification.”

As for ocean-run fish, Godwin said factors such as water temperature and baitfish availability likely keep stripers in Virginia waters. In fact, after averaging 1,366,654 pounds of recreationally-caught stripers a year from 2003 through 2011, the 2012 catch in waters off North Carolina’s coast was 0 (zero) pounds.

“For the last several years, the coastal migratory striped bass stock has been either in Virginia waters, off our coast but many miles offshore, or combinations of both, and have not been available to rec and comm harvest,” Godwin said.

Although the numbers of large spawning females has decreased, Godwin said that didn’t mean much, other than to reflect good and bad year-classes.

“However, since the stock has declined and the abundance levels are getting close to targets and thresholds, (catch) reductions are likely for the near future so that we ensure we keep female spawning biomass well above levels adequate to produce strong year-classes,” he said.

Biologist Garry Wright, who tracks Central-Southern coastal stripers, said the Division doesn’t have enough data to classify stripers in the Neuse, Tar and other rivers, so the agency opted for a “concern” classification.

The Division apparently is trying to come down on the side of caution from the Neuse to the Cape Fear, with a 25,000-pound annual cap during the spring spawning season, although no stripers can be taken by anyone in the Cape Fear during its rebuilding phase.

Commercial fishermen are supposed to operate under an 18-inch minimum-size and 10-fish trip limit, although it’s almost certain this rule results in dead discards. Wright didn’t directly answer a question about commercial pressure that kills large adults.

“Both the commercial and recreational harvest is made up mainly of fish ages three to six, or about 18 to 24 inches,” he said. “The intent of the management strategy is to harvest fish at earlier ages rather than older ages and increase the number of larger, older fish in the stock, thereby making the stock resilient to poor year classes.”

Wright said the depressed state of striped bass may not only be caused by commercial and recreational fishing but “other factors.” He ascribed one possible cause to “habitat loss” in spawning and juvenile striped bass areas. Critics of Division policy have said that allowing Pamlico Sound shrimp trawling by large boats with multiple nets and otter rigs destroys bottom habitat for many species, including stripers.

Spotted seatrout — Status: depleted

Anglers have a tough time having confidence in saltwater management when they view stock-status reports classifying a species as “depleted” when they and others are landing plenty of fish — in this case “speckled” trout.

The “depleted” designation came after a 2009 stock assessment that described trout as “overfished” and “overfishing occurring” for the past 18 years. But anglers wondered after 18 straight years of overfishing, how even a few specks remained in our waters, much less lots of them.

“Spawning potential ratios were below the (federal) recommended criteria of 20 percent,” said Michael Loeffler, a Division biologist. “This information is what drives the status of the fishery. Until the new stock assessment is completed with updated information, the species will remain at a depleted status.”

Meanwhile, enjoy catching speckled trout, which survived a tremendous cold-weather event in January.

Pelagics — Status: a mixed bag

Dolphin, king mackerel and Spanish mackerel are open-water species and mostly healthy, according to Randy Gregory, a Division biologist.

“Most of the dolphin consumed in the U.S. are imported from Ecuador, Peru and Taiwan,” he said. “Dolphin are extremely fast-growing, mature early, and spawn year-round.”

King mackerel stocks have been trending downward since 2009, but, Gregory noted, “In the 2008 stock assessment, the king mackerel stock was not overfished, and it was uncertain whether overfishing was occurring. So they’re listed as ‘Concern.’ ”

A new stock assessment will be completed this year.

Based on the latest stock assessment, the Spanish mackerel stock in the South Atlantic is not overfished and isn’t undergoing overfishing. This species is listed as “viable.”

“Recreational Spanish and dolphin fisheries should be good, especially if we can get favorable weather and currents,” Gregory said. “We’re look forward to seeing a few more king mackerel this year after seeing some small fish last summer.”

Red drum — Status: recovering

Recreational fishing for red drum has been excellent ever since the creation of an 18- to 27-inch slot limit and 1-fish creel for recreation anglers and similar incidental-catch-only netting limits for commercial fishermen.

But red drum remain listed as “recovering,” according to biologist Lee Paramore, because “the spawning stock biomass for adult red drum is unknown … so it is difficult to make a confident transition from the status of ‘recovering’ to ‘viable.’ ”

A 2015 stock assessment may offer enough information “to finally make the final jump to viable,” he said.

Southern flounder — Status: depleted

The Division has been trying to rebuild the numbers of Southern flounder, which are primarily found at inshore sounds, rivers and creeks.

Years of gill- and pound-netting, winter trawling and summer gigging likely devastated their numbers, along with hook-and-line angling.

Size limits for recreational anglers have crept up from 10 to the current 15 inches, but a 2012 study showed half the females reach maturity at 16 inches, so more restrictive size limits could be coming.

The N.C. Marine Fisheries Commission had a chance a few years ago to help Southern flounder with a 2two-month (Nov. 1-Dec. 31) closure of the commercial season but chose instead to close it only for December.

“The impact of the December commercial flounder fishery is likely minimal as far as reducing numbers of fish harvested,” Division biologist Tom Wadsworth said. “The main migration is clearly over by then.”

The sea-turtle lawsuit settlement that reduced use of large-mesh gill nets for flounder has had an unknown effect, he said, because other gear types are available and some areas weren’t subject to closure.

Summer flounder — Status: viable

Summer flounder, which live in the higher-salinity waters of the ocean and inlets, are in good shape.

“The stock north of Cape Hatteras is not overfished and overfishing is not occurring,” Wadsworth said. “The spawning stock biomass did decline somewhat, so that is why the coast-wide quota is lower this year.”

Black sea bass — Status: recovering/viable 

Commercial landings in 2012 totaled 25 percent of the 10-year average, and recreational landings were down about the same, but black sea bass north of Hatteras were deemed “recovering.”

The reason, Wadsworth said, was because nearly all commercial boats landed in Virginia or other states north of North Carolina.

South-of-Hatteras black sea bass were rated “viable” in 2013, so the South Atlantic Fisheries Management Council reopened the hook-and-line season after it determined the stock had rebuilt to its management target.

“They decided to keep the current bag limit to try to keep the recreational season open throughout the year,” said Division biologist Chip Collier said.

Commercial trawls and roller rigs were banned south of Hatteras in 1989, keying the recovery.

Black drum — Status: unknown

Biologist Chris Stewart said while most black drum are caught by recreational anglers seeking other species— primarily flounder or sheepshead — more are being landed as by-catch by commercial netters.

“Increases in commercial landings are a function of year-class strength; however, stricter regulations on various target species such as Southern flounder may contribute to more fishermen retaining a larger portion of non-target species to cover increased operating expenses,” he said.

The N.C. Marine Fisheries Commission set on Jan. 1 a 14- to 25-inch (total-length) slot limit, with one fish longer than 25 inches allowed daily, a 10-fish recreational bag limit, and a 500-pound commercial trip limit.

Weakfish — Status: depleted

Gray trout are something of a mystery, as the latest peer-reviewed stock assessment showed North Carolina weakfish are depleted; however, overfishing is not occurring.

The decline in biomass is not attributed to overfishing, as fishing mortality has remained relatively low and stable.

“But current levels of natural mortality for weakfish appear to be very high and are two to four times that of the fishing mortality,” biologist Lee Paramore said.

Predation and competition are two likely culprits, he said.

Paramore noted recruitment (spawning/survival) numbers are holding up in Delaware Bay, Chesapeake Bay and Pamlico Sound.

Shrimp-trawl by-catch could be a major player in gray trout recruitment, according to numbers gleaned from two Division studies.

Gag grouper/reef fish/Sheepshead — Status: concern/concern/unknown

Landings of gag grouper have dropped over the past 10 years, but biologist Chip Collier said neither the Division nor the NMFS is sure whether they were caused by fewer fish or less effort to catch gags.

“An overall decrease in the offshore recreational effort can likely be tied to the increase in gas prices and downturn in the economy as well as increased management of the snapper-grouper complex,” he said.

Most commercial fishing for gags is hook-and-line (1,000-pound trip limit), while recreational anglers are limited to one fish per trip. The recreational season reopens May 1 and ends Dec. 31. The Jan. 1-April 30 uniform closure also protects spawning for gag, black and red grouper, scamp, red hind, rock hind, coney, graysby, yellowfin and yellowmouth grouper.

If a 2014 stock review shows tighter grouper restrictions are needed, they likely will fall on commercial fishermen, Collier indicated.

The N.C. Marine Fisheries Commission MFC recently voted to give proclamation authority to the Division’s director to set seasons, size and bag limits for sheepshead, if needed.

River herring/American shad/Hickory shad — Status: depleted-unknown/ concern/unknown

Albemarle Sound river herring are listed as depleted, and no harvest (except for research needs) is allowed. It’s the fifth-straight year of a moratorium on herring/alewives catches.

American shad, aka white shad, are the largest members of that family, and stocks are listed as “concern.” They aren’t plentiful in North Carolina waters, so the N.C. Wildlife Resources Commission stocked 4 million fry in the Roanoke River drainage during 2013.

Hickory shad are smaller and seem to be plentiful, but the stock rating is “unknown.” Anglers may keep 10 fish in the aggregate of Americans and hickories of any size.

The upper Roanoke, Tar and Neuse rivers — and their tributaries — are the state’s top shad rivers for February and March fishing.

Bluefish — Status: viable

Biologist Beth Egbert said although the estimated number of North Carolina bluefish dropped from 2007 to 2011, the stock’s biomass increased.

“The decrease in the estimated number of fish is likely because of poor incoming year-classes in 2009, 2010 and 2011, and not fishing mortality,” she said.

Fall “runs” of 8- to 18-pound blues still occur along the North Carolina coast, but not as many as in years past — likely because of higher water temperatures here and in Virginia. Northeastern states, with cooler water, showed an increase in bluefish landings.

“Perhaps the schools stayed north longer than normal,” said Egbert, who noted that blues were the most-reported finfish in the 2012 stock-status reports, with an estimated 888,888 landed.